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SPX at crossroads Print E-mail
By Marc Eckelberry   
Tuesday, 09 March 2010 23:17
thumb_3.9.10_index_spx_m_--_new_s__p_500_indexOn February 5th, we noted a key inflexion point for the markets with NDX closing back above the critical 1744 level after correcting 10% off the January highs. One month later, and on the anniversary of last year's hammer low, SPX tags the same long term moving average that stalled it in January of this year, and that is the 50 month ema (chart). What is interesting about this level, is that it also marked bull market support in 2003 and 2004, only giving way on a closing basis in June of 2008, with a kiss goodbye retrace in August of the same year. One could argue, given January's drop, that this market is not truly back on its feet until SPX does a monthly close above that long term moving average. If we do pullback once again from this level, 1121 is the obvious target. If it holds, it should springboard us up to 61.8% retrace at 1228, with a  matching fib of 23.6% 1982/2007, heavy confluence attraction at some point. But first things first, the month needs to close above 1145.84 and 1121 cannot give way. Roadblocks are also mounting on the sentiment front, with CBOE equity put to call ratio at an extreme low of .42, confirming the overall level of complacency. A little more fear would be healthier.
 

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