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Yields on the ten year (TNX) Print E-mail
By Marc Eckelberry   
Saturday, 27 June 2009 12:32

thumb_6.26.09_index-tnx-d_--_10_year_t-note_inter__rate_cboeThe bear market high for TNX was at 4.324%, the equity rally off the March 2009 lows stalled when yields on the ten year tagged 4%. Not coincidentally, this year's high also lined up with 50% 2002/2007 for NDX/QQQQ(see our warning two weeks ago). As usual, it pays to keep an eye on bonds. The Feds want yields to stay down, even if it means deflating stock market expectations. An equity rally might give a bump in consumer sentiment, but the underlying forces at play, loans and debt management, are far more critical. Running a set of Fib retraces off the 2008 high/low for TNX gives us a perfect confluence at 3.45%, 61.8% and current trend line support. The 50 day moving average is a little lower, at 3.40%. Friday's close at 3.506% is coinciding with the S&P 500 immediate resistance at 920... click here to continue
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