Just a little fun with some DELL headlines and commentary this past year.
This is UBS on July 12th cutting estimates and price target for DELL. They lowered revenue to 14.2B and price target to 26. Link
Here is Cramer, on May 12th of this year. Remember, he is the loudest bull out there now, pushing CSCO, INTC and GOOG. Well, he was the loudest bashing them not long ago:
The markets needs generals, he explained, adding that the leaders of the last market run-up are all played out. "The generals are dead," Cramer said, and listed Cisco, Dell, Microsoft, Intel, Broadcom, Marvell Technology and Google. Link
In today's Reuters press release, there is this little line: Third-quarter revenue was $14.38 billion, up 3.4 percent from a reported $13.9 billion a year ago. It was the slowest growth in more than four years, but it fell within the range of Wall Street estimates. Link
I can go on, but basically, you get the drift, and the scam. DELL is beating lowered estimates and rising from a low price only achieved by the knock down from the same group that will be out there pushing techs tomorrow. But the story hasn't changed: this company is not growing enough to justify moving the entire tech sector to multi year highs, after a four year run. But that is what they are doing, and doing it with no fear or any sense of responsibility going forward for the average investor. Bonds are telling us a recession is coming, the yield curve has been inverted for some time now. Who do you believe? Link
I want to see who points out the DELL shortcomings year over year tomorrow. I will respect that analyst. It was easy to raise margins thanks to the INTC price reduction last quarter, as the chipmaker worked hard to clear inventory and AMD came in as a competitor. But can anyone look at DELL and still call it a big cap growth story anymore? It might change, but for now, those are the numbers. Without guidance, we can only work with what we have and it isn't so hot.
I don't like doing these types of columns, they have nothing to do with trading. But once in a while, I like to debunk the machine and make you understand that what you think is true today, will be a lie tomorrow.
A real life example: when you want to buy a house from someone, do you tell him it's an incredible value? No. You tell him it is a worthless piece of junk, but you will do the poor guy a favor and take it off his hands at a discount. Six months later, when you sell it, do you tell the buyer that the house is a worthless piece of junk? No, you tell him it is the Hearst castle and by next year, it will be the Taj Mahal. Some sucker buys into your pitch and you made your money for the year. That is what big brokerages do. As a trader, you can make money riding the call, but as an investor, the real money is only made by buying low and selling high. Is today high enough? You be the judge. "Sell too soon" is not an idle cliche. It's what pros do. They take money off the table.
This is UBS on July 12th cutting estimates and price target for DELL. They lowered revenue to 14.2B and price target to 26. Link
Here is Cramer, on May 12th of this year. Remember, he is the loudest bull out there now, pushing CSCO, INTC and GOOG. Well, he was the loudest bashing them not long ago:
The markets needs generals, he explained, adding that the leaders of the last market run-up are all played out. "The generals are dead," Cramer said, and listed Cisco, Dell, Microsoft, Intel, Broadcom, Marvell Technology and Google. Link
In today's Reuters press release, there is this little line: Third-quarter revenue was $14.38 billion, up 3.4 percent from a reported $13.9 billion a year ago. It was the slowest growth in more than four years, but it fell within the range of Wall Street estimates. Link
I can go on, but basically, you get the drift, and the scam. DELL is beating lowered estimates and rising from a low price only achieved by the knock down from the same group that will be out there pushing techs tomorrow. But the story hasn't changed: this company is not growing enough to justify moving the entire tech sector to multi year highs, after a four year run. But that is what they are doing, and doing it with no fear or any sense of responsibility going forward for the average investor. Bonds are telling us a recession is coming, the yield curve has been inverted for some time now. Who do you believe? Link
I want to see who points out the DELL shortcomings year over year tomorrow. I will respect that analyst. It was easy to raise margins thanks to the INTC price reduction last quarter, as the chipmaker worked hard to clear inventory and AMD came in as a competitor. But can anyone look at DELL and still call it a big cap growth story anymore? It might change, but for now, those are the numbers. Without guidance, we can only work with what we have and it isn't so hot.
I don't like doing these types of columns, they have nothing to do with trading. But once in a while, I like to debunk the machine and make you understand that what you think is true today, will be a lie tomorrow.
A real life example: when you want to buy a house from someone, do you tell him it's an incredible value? No. You tell him it is a worthless piece of junk, but you will do the poor guy a favor and take it off his hands at a discount. Six months later, when you sell it, do you tell the buyer that the house is a worthless piece of junk? No, you tell him it is the Hearst castle and by next year, it will be the Taj Mahal. Some sucker buys into your pitch and you made your money for the year. That is what big brokerages do. As a trader, you can make money riding the call, but as an investor, the real money is only made by buying low and selling high. Is today high enough? You be the judge. "Sell too soon" is not an idle cliche. It's what pros do. They take money off the table.
This entry was posted
on Wednesday, November 22, 2006 at 11/22/2006 12:53:00 AM.
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