New highs for techs, with the COMP/NDX hitting 50% projection October albeit with another bearish divergence, but that is more of a bear trap these days than anything else. But it does tell us a pullback of deeper magnitude is coming. The bullish case is the SOX, if it can close above 61.8% 2006 at 493. The bearish case is the SOX, still lagging in terms of second half performance.
One area of concern is the BIX (banking). A close below its 20 dma is not making bulls feel very comfortable, although it did see a closing bounce. Nevertheless, it is getting closer to its 50 DMA than any other equity index and since it is a vital component of the S&P, it is a story to follow: Chart
ES failed to blast through last week's highs at 1408. Immediate resistance above is 1410.50. NQ did the deed, but closed below 1813, the level to watch there. All very close, so it wont take much good news to give bulls an excuse to bid things up in the low volume of a shortened holiday week. I suspect many traders thought we would pullback a little deeper today (I did), but obviously everyone is more concerned about the retail numbers tomorrow and consumer sentiment on Wednesday than problems in housing.
Oil found solid support at 58.15 (with a little overlap) and that could end up being a thorn on the side of the bulls, should 59 hold up going forward.
One area of concern is the BIX (banking). A close below its 20 dma is not making bulls feel very comfortable, although it did see a closing bounce. Nevertheless, it is getting closer to its 50 DMA than any other equity index and since it is a vital component of the S&P, it is a story to follow: Chart
ES failed to blast through last week's highs at 1408. Immediate resistance above is 1410.50. NQ did the deed, but closed below 1813, the level to watch there. All very close, so it wont take much good news to give bulls an excuse to bid things up in the low volume of a shortened holiday week. I suspect many traders thought we would pullback a little deeper today (I did), but obviously everyone is more concerned about the retail numbers tomorrow and consumer sentiment on Wednesday than problems in housing.
Oil found solid support at 58.15 (with a little overlap) and that could end up being a thorn on the side of the bulls, should 59 hold up going forward.
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on Monday, November 20, 2006 at 11/20/2006 09:38:00 PM.
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