There we go. Oil drops a little and equities recover. It's still 62+ oil, but for now stocks will use any excuse.
As you can see, heavy distribution at the open happens every time SPX approaches 1400. That means money is getting out on rallies since most expect 1400 to be the year end target anyway. Single digit appreciation is the most likely scenario for 2006, 10% would put SPX at 1375, so I actually think 1400 is optimistic.
Traders should note the overnight highs, in case they make a run for it. NQ 1801.75 and ES 1406.25. That could happen if NQ manages a move above 1796. For now, the action is defensive and stalling at ES 1400/NQ 1794 and QQQQ 44.
QQQQ 43 and 44 strike are still put supportive, which is probably why bears are having a hard time gaining too much traction. Nevertheless, the opex contrarian trade does not take effect until the Thursday before option expiration week, so we could actually see some pretty heavy selling before.
As you can see, heavy distribution at the open happens every time SPX approaches 1400. That means money is getting out on rallies since most expect 1400 to be the year end target anyway. Single digit appreciation is the most likely scenario for 2006, 10% would put SPX at 1375, so I actually think 1400 is optimistic.
Traders should note the overnight highs, in case they make a run for it. NQ 1801.75 and ES 1406.25. That could happen if NQ manages a move above 1796. For now, the action is defensive and stalling at ES 1400/NQ 1794 and QQQQ 44.
QQQQ 43 and 44 strike are still put supportive, which is probably why bears are having a hard time gaining too much traction. Nevertheless, the opex contrarian trade does not take effect until the Thursday before option expiration week, so we could actually see some pretty heavy selling before.
This entry was posted
on Thursday, November 30, 2006 at 11/30/2006 10:53:00 AM.
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