The VIX bands are trading high/low to perfection. The lower band is now at 9.60, but that would seem a little far fetched with all the data coming out. With VIX 10.34, bulls must be wondering how far they can push their luck.
YM has that gap to close at 12710 which is also weekly R1 and channel resistance. The one concern about this rally is techs still lagging, they need to pick up the ball and join the party on a relative basis. Traders who took the Q's on this rally are a little frustrated given the size of the blue chip gains. NQ should get a move to 1801.75 tomorrow (weekly pivot) and we will see how it behaves. If NDX starts kicking in, the rally will get new highs for SPX and the DOW. Otherwise, it's another headfake. Some good news from AMAT after the close could be the spark. Small caps are an enigma, their rise is entirely predicated on yields dropping tomorrow. If TNX bids any higher, the index to short would be RUT. But should yields drop, look out above.
A huge positive is the TRAN close at all time highs and that definitely triggered some strong buy orders in the last hour. I wonder what Russell is saying to his subscribers.
CBOE equity put to call ratio is at .75 and ISEE closed at 135. That supports the bulls as pessimism greets this rally. Hard to tell during option expiration week. Nevertheless, I gave bears a heads up yesterday on these low ISEE numbers and they have not changed, even with this rally. We could get more short covering moves in the coming days. The day I see an ISEE close above 200 is the day I load the truck on puts. We are not there yet, but that darn VIX is sure puzzling. The chart clearly shows an uptrend forming, the same one VXN had that hurt NDX. One other note: option pessimism does not negate the possible occurrence of sell-offs, it just means they don't last as long. Anyone playing sentiment contrarian got a whipping from the bears recently. You still need to watch price and mind your entries or you will get stopped out of existence.
On the VISTA front, NVDA posted strong earning, but this little phrase sums up the tech dilemma these days: "Although we're enthusiastic about Vista's impact on our business, we'll be cautious in the first quarter," said CFO Marvin Burkett, adding that the company does not see any significant industry growth drivers to offset seasonality". Street.com
YM has that gap to close at 12710 which is also weekly R1 and channel resistance. The one concern about this rally is techs still lagging, they need to pick up the ball and join the party on a relative basis. Traders who took the Q's on this rally are a little frustrated given the size of the blue chip gains. NQ should get a move to 1801.75 tomorrow (weekly pivot) and we will see how it behaves. If NDX starts kicking in, the rally will get new highs for SPX and the DOW. Otherwise, it's another headfake. Some good news from AMAT after the close could be the spark. Small caps are an enigma, their rise is entirely predicated on yields dropping tomorrow. If TNX bids any higher, the index to short would be RUT. But should yields drop, look out above.
A huge positive is the TRAN close at all time highs and that definitely triggered some strong buy orders in the last hour. I wonder what Russell is saying to his subscribers.
CBOE equity put to call ratio is at .75 and ISEE closed at 135. That supports the bulls as pessimism greets this rally. Hard to tell during option expiration week. Nevertheless, I gave bears a heads up yesterday on these low ISEE numbers and they have not changed, even with this rally. We could get more short covering moves in the coming days. The day I see an ISEE close above 200 is the day I load the truck on puts. We are not there yet, but that darn VIX is sure puzzling. The chart clearly shows an uptrend forming, the same one VXN had that hurt NDX. One other note: option pessimism does not negate the possible occurrence of sell-offs, it just means they don't last as long. Anyone playing sentiment contrarian got a whipping from the bears recently. You still need to watch price and mind your entries or you will get stopped out of existence.
On the VISTA front, NVDA posted strong earning, but this little phrase sums up the tech dilemma these days: "Although we're enthusiastic about Vista's impact on our business, we'll be cautious in the first quarter," said CFO Marvin Burkett, adding that the company does not see any significant industry growth drivers to offset seasonality". Street.com
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on Tuesday, February 13, 2007 at 2/13/2007 07:26:00 PM.
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