AheadoftheNews.com

Market analysis and futures trades.

YM hits weekly R2 (just shy 12804) and retraces rather abruptly after the close, now trading at 12766, just above monthly R1. ES did the same snap back after making a slight higher high from yesterday. SPX options expired today and after doing the usual run-up, they sell off futures after the close. Welcome to option expiration week. It will be interesting to see where they try and pin NDX. For now it looks like they don't want to pay 1825 calls. I put in a YM short signal at OI this time around, 12801 stop 12811. It was a contingency call should any short at monthly R1 (12764) get stopped. So far it looks promising, but my guess is they will hold 12734 on any retrace. Shorts these days are not love affairs.
Volatility compression (.27 VIX range!) made for some difficult day trading, the key was to patiently wait for extreme signals, such as weekly R2 for YM, or weekly R1 support for NQ.
Overnight traders will take note of YM monthly R1 at 12764 and ES at 1456, both current support. I am not so sure they will hold.

CBOE equity put tocall ratio hit a very optimistic .52 at the close and it looks like the herd is jumping in. link

MSFT Balmer comment sends the stock down to 28.95 after hours and that could be a real stinker: link
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