I had suggested that we might get an NDX run up to the February gap should Feds hint at a cut. After an initial euphoric reaction, the markets could come to the realization that the Feds are not going to cut because of a lower risk of inflation. It will be out of concern for the economy. As such, financials which would normally benefit from lower rates could be under pressure along with the rest of the market. The winners will be precious metals and agricultural commodities according to Boockvaar: video
The bullish argument is that housing has bottomed. But if the Feds believe that, they will not cut, putting their focus back on inflation and in the process endangering an already fragile recovery. A lose/lose for the markets near term? We need more economic data.
NDX action was slightly bearish today, printing a lower low and lower high, unlike the DOW and SPX, both helped by higher oil which is actually an albatross longer term.
In the meantime, it might be wise to think defensive again, unless NQ breaks out above 1831 (NDX 1812). There is still the possibility that YM (DOW future) tags its February gap at 12684, so watch the tape for divergences. Price is the ultimate arbiter, trade accordingly. The economic calendar is loaded next week, starting with home builders.
And now, for something completely different: John Cleese Compaq ad
The bullish argument is that housing has bottomed. But if the Feds believe that, they will not cut, putting their focus back on inflation and in the process endangering an already fragile recovery. A lose/lose for the markets near term? We need more economic data.
NDX action was slightly bearish today, printing a lower low and lower high, unlike the DOW and SPX, both helped by higher oil which is actually an albatross longer term.
In the meantime, it might be wise to think defensive again, unless NQ breaks out above 1831 (NDX 1812). There is still the possibility that YM (DOW future) tags its February gap at 12684, so watch the tape for divergences. Price is the ultimate arbiter, trade accordingly. The economic calendar is loaded next week, starting with home builders.
And now, for something completely different: John Cleese Compaq ad
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on Friday, March 23, 2007 at 3/23/2007 09:40:00 PM.
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