The inverted yield curve has been ignored for some time, but with the bull market getting weak in the knees it might be time to take notice.
March 12 (Bloomberg) -- Alan Greenspan, who jolted investors by predicting a one-in-three chance of a recession this year, isn't as bearish as the bond market, where the risk of a downturn is even money.
The probability the U.S. economy will shrink for two quarters has risen to 50 percent, according to a model created when Greenspan ran the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. The formula is based on differences in yields on Treasuries.
Full Text.
March 12 (Bloomberg) -- Alan Greenspan, who jolted investors by predicting a one-in-three chance of a recession this year, isn't as bearish as the bond market, where the risk of a downturn is even money.
The probability the U.S. economy will shrink for two quarters has risen to 50 percent, according to a model created when Greenspan ran the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. The formula is based on differences in yields on Treasuries.
Full Text.
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