Here is by far the best, most succinct macro analysis I have come across lately (shamelessly brought up here because it echoes mine...). It steers clear of the "healthy correction" nonsense and gets into solid detail without being overly complex and hedged. It will help you understand the carry trade, liquidity, and various scenarios unfolding. The analyst is European and as a rule, I trust their outlook more than US counterparts, who have too many conflicts of interest. Basic recommendation: buy Yen and gold and sell stocks on rallies. Watch to it, I strongly recommend it, courtesy of Bloomberg: video
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on Friday, March 16, 2007 at 3/16/2007 12:28:00 PM.
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3/16/07 1:13 PMYou know, you can't have a market cycle if there is no down part of the cycle. That is simply the fact, and painted otherwise by talking heads just isnt accurate. The signs are up. Good video commentary.
3/16/07 1:21 PM
It's geared to investors, not traders. I will buy rallies, sell them etc...But the average investor is being lure into thinking that what is going on is no big deal. It is a big deal, and most likely the start of a 12 to 18 month cyclical bear. One needs to adapt and react, not just sit around and get whacked. Buy consumer staples along with gold and put the rest in cash while you await better prices on stocks you want to own. The worst that can happen is that you miss out another minor new high. Far less trouble than a new low.
3/16/07 2:39 PM
if a bear market is defigned as the DJ INDU closing price; < 50 DMA and < 200 DMA, and 50 DMA < 200 DMA then over the last 75 years the average bear market has been about 10 months. I dont have the exact time in front of me but 10 is close. 18 months should get us back close to a accumulation phase
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