November crude (CL/QM) closed below monthly R2 and even though the market remains inverted (cash is higher than distant future=short supplies), you have to think we are topping out short term now that hurricane season is winding down and geo threats are pretty much priced in. Friday ended with a Doji, right under 50% projection August (81.675). Monday's pivot is 81.525, watch that, along with 81.85 for clues to go short, or exit longs. A break above 82.30 would be bullish with a price target of 82.70, 61.8% projection August. Weekly R1 is 83.575 if bulls go bonkers. But we are getting streched and all it will take is an oversold bounce in the dollar and oil speculators could be scrambling for the exits. A pullback to the 10 dma, now at 79.25, is long overdue.
There is still a vague weather risk, check periodically with Accuweather.
This entry was posted
on Saturday, September 22, 2007 at 9/22/2007 01:52:00 PM.
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