TNX chart update. If you remember, the hit of 4.3% (double bottom off 2006 low) was a warning for equity shorts that risk aversion would lighten up. Where do we stand now? Two post 2000 recession long term trading ranges appear on this chart. One is 2003/2005 with a rough range of 3.9 to 4.7% and the second is 2006 to present, defined by a range between 4.3% and 5.2%. Should TNX hold 45.06 (4.51%), 38.2% 2000/2002, the gradual ascent since the 2003 low is not in jeopardy. But a monthly close below 4.5% will set up a retest of 4.3 and with a failure, a very swift drop to 4.1%. Note that prior trendline support off 2003 lows is now resistance. The non-farm payrolls on October 5th will be critical.
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on Wednesday, September 19, 2007 at 9/19/2007 08:27:00 PM.
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