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April 30 (Bloomberg) -- Speculators are increasing their purchases of Russian stocks just as six years of gains grind to a halt in the world's second-largest emerging market.

Forget housing, this is the one that is going to blow up in our face, with 75% margin...

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The latest figures on worldwide semiconductor sales showed the industry's business improving from a year ago, but issues such as declines in average selling prices, increased competition and weakness in the U.S. continue to cast a shadow over the chip market.

SMH is definitely feeling some pressure on this news. 37/37.15 is resistance, support is 37.50.

YM / DOW double tops as the Yen bounces again. The latest push by YM was not confirmed by techs, but until we lose 13163, the jury is still out. Watch USD/JPY 119.50 resistance.

The Yen is all over the place, but techs are weaker still and that should cap any major rally from here as we end the month. Watch YM 13163 resistance and NQ 1894 support.

April 30 (Bloomberg) -- The yen rebounded from a record low against the euro after China acted to cool its economy, prompting traders to reduce higher-yielding investments funded by borrowing the Japanese currency.

YM trading below pivot, NQ is a little stronger.

I am in the midst of upgraded some computer equipment, bear with me. I strongly suspect a decent size pullback is coming once we clear end of month dressing. That does not mean sell-off, just better prices to go long if you haven't done so already. Overall, I don't think this rally is finished. My target is still COMP 2640. Watch the Yen for intraday swings.

April 27 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. auto sales in April were ``surprisingly weak'' industrywide, Ford Motor Co. sales analyst George Pipas said today.

The results were affected by a housing slump, rising gasoline prices and a slowdown in economic growth, Pipas said in an interview.

Great article on Jeremy Grantham and his worldwide bubble analysis: link

Rotation into DOW "safe" stocks and out of techs. But TNX is up at 4.7% and we are flirting with the devil on this bounce.

There are just too many shorts out there and the constant reversals form short squeezes off any Yen drop is making trading very choppy. The VIX is saying buy, but ADDEC lines are saying sell. SMH/XLF say sell, but the Yen drop says buy. When everything is out of sync like this you get a difficult session to trade.

Pop on better than expected consumer sentiment, but beware of both SMH and XLF down (semis and financials).

April 27 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy grew in the first quarter at the slowest pace in four years, hobbled by the slump in home construction and a bigger trade deficit.

The 1.3 percent annual growth rate was less than forecast and followed a 2.5 percent fourth-quarter pace, the Commerce Department reported today in Washington. A measure of inflation watched by the Federal Reserve rose at a faster pace.

Slow growth is one thing, but inflation is a no-no. Big Yen rally (it does not look like we will get USD) and all of a sudden, bulls are in trouble. Maybe we will get that swing trade after all. Watch DOW 13K on any retest. YM below S1 and gold picks up a bid above 676.
Consumer sentiment at 10.

MSFT is getting a nice pop and should provide help for NQ, since it carries a lot of weight in NDX. MMM, for the DOW, also got a good overnight bid. But we are very stretched and need a rest at the very least.

Since the Yen is in the news (trader news), let's look at JPY June futures. If we can't regain 0.008410 overnight, we should hit a gap at 0.008384, next support. I also want to point out that USD/JPY is approaching the critical 120 level, where I think real buyers could step in. For now, it's a falling knife so scalp longs only until support is clearly established. 0.00844 is solid resistance (7.4% 2007). My guess is that carry trade money is moving to Europe, solid growth there, as US equities get a little frothy.

April 26 (Bloomberg) -- Microsoft Corp., the world's biggest software maker, said third-quarter earnings rose 65 percent on sales of its new Windows and Office programs. The revenue forecast for the coming year exceeded analysts' estimates.

For this quarter, profit will be 37 cents to 39 cents on sales of $13.1 billion to $13.4 billion. That compares with analyst estimates of 41 cents and $13.4 billion in sales. The company had profit of 28 cents and sales of $11.8 billion a year ago.

Up a buck after hours, but it does not look very exciting so far. Certainly no AAPL type surprise.
I posted earlier the put to call ratio at 30 strike, with overwhelming bullish bets. That is a negative, normally. Too many speculators hoping for a blow-out.

Update:
MU and NVDA, both key Vista components (ram and graphics) are slightly down on the report.
MSFT is struggling with 30. It can all change, but certainly not the kind of blow-out AAPL gave.
There's a gap to close at 30.20. If the stock manages to hold above that, it could go much higher. Call sellers will be buying to cover after-hours.

Good column on Apple by Dvorak: link.

MSFT .20 pc ratio at 30 strike going into earnings this afternoon. Lots of hopefuls out there.

The DOW does another push at the 2 PM turn, but YM finds sellers at 13167, 38.2 projection last week. Add 13163, 100% March, and you have pretty stiff resistance just above 13160. The day is not over, as bears know by now.

Just as I type that, another short squeeze up to 13170.

Carry trade money could be moving more to Europe. The US had a good run and you can tell that today's Yen drop did not help US equities that much. Looking for a JPY June double bottom at 0.008410. Needs to hold.

Futures rise further but YM hits exactly 100% projection March at 13163. Very precise resistance. Yields are rising on the jobs numbers.

The Yen is falling apart due to dollar strength (so much for finding a base). Strangely enough, this has not created a huge jump in equity futures, at least for now. But we still have a bullish bias as we await the jobs data at 8:30. Perhaps it is understood that the dollar rebound is due to the perception the Feds will not lower rates in the near future. Commodities are pulling back.
USD/JPY 120 is considered to be a spot where currency protection could get triggered.

The calendar is loaded tomorrow and Friday. Bulls can do no wrong, even when there is bad news...Nevertheless, lots of profits to book if there is blip. It has been a very frustrating market to trade for swing traders: there are no swings, just buy the most minimal of dips. That's what happens when 8000 hedge funds are chasing the same stocks. You can tell i't's those guys because every move of the Yen directly affects futures. There are going to borrow those cheap billions from Japan until it is no longer cheap.

April 26 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar traded within half a cent of a record low against the euro as signs of slowing growth prompted traders to increase bets the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year....

...Japanese investors last week bought overseas bonds at the fastest pace in five months, according to data the Ministry of Finance released today. Investors bought 653.4 billion yen ($5.5 billion) in foreign bonds on a net basis in the week ended April 21, the most since the week ended Nov. 11, the data showed.

``The forces are in place to push the yen higher,'' said Michael Thomas, head of economics and strategy at ICAP Australia Ltd. in Sydney. ``They'll say growth is sustainable. They'll have to acknowledge inflation is weak, but they'll be saying inflation will start rising again.''

Inflation Forecast

The Japanese currency may rise to 117.50 against the dollar and 161.56 per euro in one week, Thomas said.


I commented to a reader that JPY June seemed to be building a base above the 10 day moving average.

Buying/short covering frenzy hits the markets. YM pretty much tags 100% projection March and frankly, with the 5 day moving average 130 points below and the 10 day almost 300 points lower, you have to wonder who is chasing this. Also noting that BPINDU (bullish percentage index) hit 90, about as high as it ever gets and exactly where we were at the February top. I think the markets are going higher, i.e. COMP 2640, but we can't keep doing this in a straight line. It's unhealthy.

YM (DOW future) has reached 3% from 20 DMA envelope target. That is an extreme move and the next swing trade should be corrective.

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Demand for U.S.-made durable goods increased 3.4% in March, led by orders for aircraft and capital equipment, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. The increase was slightly higher than the 2.5% gain expected by economists. It was the biggest increase in durable-goods orders since December. Boeing's order book was one big story in the March report. Orders for civilian aircraft zoomed 37.6% higher. The other big story in March: Demand for core capital equipment increased a robust 4.7% after a cumulative 8.5% decline in January and February. It was the biggest gain in this key gauge of business investment since September 2004.

Hopes for a rate cut in May are fading.

The dollar is rising further against the Yen, all the ingredients are in place for DOW 13K. The only fly in the ointment are rising rates.

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Applications for new mortgages rose last week for the first time in six weeks as mortgage rates dropped, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported Wednesday.

This is pushing yields up pre-open, boosting the dollar a little against the Yen.

If NQ cracks 1878, next resistance is 1888 (previous year high). Support is 1870/1871.25, followed by 1867. It doesn't matter what the news is, we are still over-stretched and there will be some profit takers on rallies.

Bulls take it up one more time. It seems there is no other alternative than stocks, so off we go. We will see how market breadth behaves today. NQ resistance is 1878, YM is 13037/13040.
Oil is back at 65, we have inventories due at 7:30. The Yen is staying strong. There is a good chance we fill the gaps at the open.

NYSE, a noticeable laggard today, although it did bounce at the close. Note that 9686 is now firmly established as resistance. Support is 9622, 50% projection March. These markets are screaming for a drop to 10 day moving averages and there is a good chance it will be this week.

AMZN delivers and NQ jumps up above 1871.25.
The Yen is on a bid, but no one cares for now.

A few minutes after I posted that, YM drops on the Yen bid.

Closing hour rejection for YM (DOW future) at 13031, triple top zone. As mentioned earlier, the rally was a little suspect with negative breadth everywhere. The Yen did drop, but it was tentative and is now catching a bid.

ES 1480.50 was indeed support and we have a rally. However, breadth is negative with NYSE barely participating. Looks like a squeeze attempt to hit DOW 13K. The Yen is the cause, once again, as it goes in the red against USD.

April 24 (Bloomberg) -- Sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. declined more than forecast in March to the lowest level in almost four years, delaying housing's recovery from a slump that's shown some signs of reaching bottom.

Just watch the Yen, don't look at headlines (even though I am putting them up...).

Jpy June is back above 0.008504, bearish for equities. If NQ can't hold 1854/1855, it will most likely head down to 1845 support. IBM, TXN and ALTR bucking the trend.

ES closes Friday's gap at 1480.50. Needs to hold.

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. consumer confidence weakened for the third straight month in April, the Conference Board said Tuesday. The consumer confidence index fell to 104.0 in April from a revised 108.2 in March. Economists expected the index to slip to 104.9 from the initial reading of 107.2 in the previous month. Both reports on present-day conditions and the short-term declined in April. It was the first decline in the present-situation index in six months. Consumers were less upbeat about labor market conditions and consumers expectations for inflation one year out rose to its highest level since last August.

NQ loses 1864.75 suport.

Futures test the overnight highs on continued Yen weakness.

Alcatel hurts the bid. NQ stalls above last week's high, 1870.25. NQ needs to hold above 1864.75, weekend resistance. The Yen is now down, adding support at a critical moment.
Consumer confidence at 10.

The Yen is once again trying to spoil the party. JPY/USD June now back above 0.008504, 20 DMA.
Watch the leader, tech and NQ. Support is 1859.50.

Update: JPY pulls back a bit and NQ moves above R1 at 1868.25. Initial target above 1871.25 is still 1878.25, confluence weekly R1 and 23.6% projection March. Secondary target is 1393/1394, weekly R2 and 38.2% projection March.

On another note, while shopping for a new system, I found out that Qcharts does not support Vista. Lots of negative comments out there on that OS and I will not load that dog on my computer. I know I'm not the only one and I am starting to worry that MSFT will disappoint on Thursday.

Looks like TXN did not disappoint (or did not do as bad as thought) and SMH (semi-conductor holders) jumps up to 36.80 after hours. Shorting techs is a bad idea these days, especially semis. NQ (NDX future) should tag weekly R1 at 1878.50.

TXN reports after the close.

Some news out of Nigeria and oil jumps above 65. If the markets are looking for an excuse to book profits, that might be it. QM/CL upside breakout above 64.85 resistance outlined over the weekend.
Not helping is JPY June holding the pivot and giving the Yen a bid.

The flip-flopping Yen hits overnight support and gets a bid again. Stocks are struggling to regain their footing and after a brief short squeeze, NQ is back below 1865. Small caps are weak today as is the housing sector.

Open:
The Yen reverses and stocks find support at pivots. Lots of confusion but the financial sector is holding us up for now. NQ 1864.75 is still resistance.

Overnight update:
Here comes the JPY bid I was worried about. Support was solid at 10 DMA and we are off to the races. If it keeps it up, equity futures could reverse course. It's tough to get bulls worried these days, but we are definitely over-extended and that is going to figure into the equation a little more than last week. Nevertheless, let's see if JPY June can push above 0.008492 pivot before getting too short term bearish. Support is 0.008471.

Sarkozy lead going into the second round of French presidentials could give CAC a bump tomorrow, which in turn could help US overnight action. Last week's rally was driven in part by put unwinding from bearish bets in March (short covering if you prefer), now bulls have to shore up their base. I am noticing some Yen strength once again, keep that on your radar (see earlier comments). Watch NQ (NDX future) 1864.75 resistance.

Oil traders pushed up QM/CL on Friday as they piled on to the June contract (rotation). Key support lies between 62.85 and 63.35. Resistance is 64.85. Follow the breaks above or below, chop in between.

NQ (NDX future) closed inside the morning's gap, unlike ES and YM. That lag was also present in the cash NDX doji close. My guess it is tied to some perceived Yen strength. Whenever you see a high beta sector slightly under performing, look at at the carry trade. JPY June long could be a play. The Yen is undervalued and I don't think Wednesday's overnight jump was an isolated incident. Worst case scenario, it is a very good hedge. I like techs and I think COMP 2600+ is in the wings, but there are always bumps on the road.

SPX stalls at natural resistance, 61.8% projection March (1485). The index has also traded seven days away from its 10 day moving average, which is very bullish but also invites gravitational pull. I don't pay too much attention to overbought/oversold readings (if you did recently, you missed out on sizable gains), but RSI above 80 is supportive of a pullback. Bears should not get too excited though, drops to 10 DMA will be most likely be bought. But the media is finally jumping on board, with happy headlines, so a little caution is warranted.
May should be bullish and SPX 1500 will most likely get tagged but as usual, we let price decide.

Dell Brings Back Windows XP.

Troubling article and probably why we we might see some nervousness ahead of MSFT numbers next week.

Closing blast of short covering and NYSE tags 9700. Slight lag for NDX as the Yen bounces back a little from lows. A very bullish day, even the SOX managed a comeback. Nevertheless, we are due for some backing and filling, especially the DOW. YM 5 DMA is all the way down at 12870, 155 points away. Even the die hard bulls must be getting a little nervous.

Techs are very sensitive to the Yen, so keep USD/JPY up on your screen.

Caterpillar (CAT), the stock of the day for the DOW, did a big opening jump on its earnings report, but backed off from 61.8% 2006/2007, 72.85. That golden fib again.

NYSE hit 61.8% projection March, 9686.20, and retreated, after doing a small overlap at 9697. As you can see on the chart, the ascending wedge is getting pretty severe. Put those numbers up as resistance for the overall markets. There is nothing wrong with booking profits at these levels.

If we pullback, watch NQ 1853.75 support.

NQ 1862 is now acting as resistance. YM poked it's head above the channel and hit 12997, just shy of 13K, but it will probably head down to retest 12908, February highs. It's time for a breather, even though the overall trend is indisputably bullish.

Huge rally, but NQ hits my targets and YM is definitely getting very extended. The Yen collapsed overnight and that gave bulls a nice boost. Just remember that this is opex and they will try and hold things back a little. We are due for some profit talking soon. SMH (semis) is in the red, a divergence.

JPY (Japanese Yen) June future settles below the 50 DMA after giving everyone a scare last night. It rallied just enough to close the late March gap and tag 50% 2007, 0.008560, now resistance. The carry trade is still alive and well. Shorts were caught like deer in the headlights as equities did not do the "obvious" follow through selling. With everyone thinking repeat of last April, the markets did what they do best: catch everyone wrong-footed. As long as OEX holds 670 on pullbacks and the COMP keeps closing above 2500, bears will be hard-pressed to make a case. Semiconductors were on a tear today as were financials. When those two are up, it's suicide to stay short. Target high for NQ (NDX future) this week could still be 1859/1861, Feb gap close.
GOOG is doing well after-hours and unless the Yen starts shooting up again, bulls will hold the line.
I have little doubt the COMP will eventually make its way up to 2600. In fact, my guess is bulls are shooting for 2645.67, 38.2% 2000/2002. That will be a tough one to crack, but we will deal with it, if and when we get there. For now, we are still in buy the dips mode until support breaks. SPX and the DOW need to dip to 10 DMA's at some point, so a pullback is in the wings for next week.

This chart sums it all up. Daily volume at ask minus daily volume at bid. Steady buying since March 5th.

Initial target on SMH long is reached just under 36.20, closing some Aug 35 calls for 50% profit in one week. Semis are on a roll..

Note that NQ (NDX future) still has to close its February gap at 1859.50, should bulls really take over at some point. It's also confluence weekly R2 (1862), but they will need to get 1847 back first.

April 19 (Bloomberg) -- A measure of the U.S. economy's future course rose in March for the first time in three months, as the labor market expanded and factories received more orders.

The Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators increased 0.1 percent after a 0.6 percent drop in February that was bigger than initially reported, the New York-based group said today. The gauge points to the direction of the economy over the next three to six months.

USD/JPY managed a comeback on that news and helped equities hold support. Anything to keep to the dollar from falling too much against the Yen.

This is not February 2007 or April 2006. OEX held 670, a key test and the COMP is now back above 2500. Option players are pinning QQQQ 45, as discussed earlier this week. If you bought the NQ gap close at 1832, you are doing fine, although don't expect miracles. Stops should be moved up to 1835 or profits booked and flat for the day. SMH (semi-conductors) are in the green and that is a relief for bulls.

NQ held the gap close overnight (1832) and that will be support. Trendline is further down at 1820, along with the 20 DMA. So far, the damage is nothing like what we experienced the last time the Yen jumped up like this overnight. USD/JPY managed to crawl back above 118 and that will be the number to watch going forward.

April 19 (Bloomberg) -- China's economy grew at a faster than expected 11.1 percent pace, powered by exports that have inflamed trade tensions and increased the risk of overheating.

Spending on factories and real estate accelerated in the first quarter, the statistics bureau said today in Beijing. The median estimate of 24 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for growth of 10.4 percent from a year earlier, the same as in the previous quarter.

JPY keeps climbing and NQ has downside risk to 1832/1834, 10 DM and Monday's gap close.

For the first time this month, JPY is trading above its 50 DMA. USD/JPY found support at 118, but it's obvious equity markets will suffer if this trend persists at the open.

April 19 (Bloomberg) -- The yen strengthened for a third day against the dollar after a report showed demand for services in Japan unexpectedly rose to a record in February.

Another overnight Yen bid and futures drop. The one hope for bulls is the jobs data pre-open which could boost the dollar. For now, you should be flat or hedged with long JPY June above 0.008514. Key dollar/yen support will be 118.

Good day for bulls, given the initial selling. NQ (NDX future) manages a close above 1847, which could set up 1859/1860, Feb gap close and weekly R2. Above that, bulls will be pushing their luck without a pullback to the 10 DMA. The DOW seems particularly over-extended.
OEX held 670 and many will notice the overall bullish implications. We could be seeing some rotation out of smaller caps into the big guns of S&P 100.

The TRAN (Transportation index) is at 5171, not far from all time highs at 5211. Being short is dangerous when financials, transportation up and semi-conductors are up. As mentioned earlier, even housing is up. YHOO is holding NDX back, but that stock is just second fiddle to GOOG, not a market indicator.

Nice bounce off COMP 2500 and NQ (NDX future) makes it back up to overnight highs of 1848. The Yen is still strong so expect some whipsaws.
OEX (S&P 100) held the key 670 level on the morning pullback and that could signal more gains. The SOX is very bullish. When leadership moves to the semis, don't get caught on the short side. There is lots of bad news out there, but the markets still feel strong, amazingly enough. Don't argue as long as the trend is up. HGX (Housing index) is up today, even with the foreclosure news. That should tell you something.

If you are daytrading, key support is NQ 1840.50, this morning's gap open. For YM (DOW future), it's 12803, but bulls need to hold 12813, weekly R2. ES 1477 (SPX future) is the other zone to hold.

We are going to test COMP 2500. If it holds at the close, bulls will run the rest of the week higher.

A strong Yen bid is hurting stocks, but the semi-conductor group is holding up well and preventing heavy damage to the broader market. NQ could get in the Mon