AheadoftheNews.com: February 2008

Friday, February 29, 2008

The DOW gets pulled right down to the trendline. Futures bounce back after the cash close, putting ES back above the 1331 level. A very nasty day nevertheless.

UPS affirms Q1 EPS of 94c-98c, 2008 EPS of $4.30-$4.50

PM Update (2):

Crunch time. ES loses the trendline, the COMP is right at 2280 and AD Lines have jumped to -2300. The DOW is testing the triangle trendline support. It could be a heavy close if the 2 PM turn does not offer some respite. The VIX is not on the side of the bulls, at highs of the day.

PM update:

No improvement in the AD lines and we are consolidating at lows, usually not a good sign, but QQQQ is right at 43.30, an important breakout level in 2006. The VIX is coiling at 25.34, expect a strong move either way.
What is an ascending triangle for the DOW is a bearish pennant for the COMP with 2280 as must hold. Who will win...we will soon find out.

Morning Update (2):

The DOW came very close to that support trendline off the ascending triangle (see pre-open). A move back above 12424 is needed and soon. Weekly pivot for YM is at 12358.
ES is still clinging to that trendline, somewhat of a surprise given the ferocity of the down volume. Of course, the day is still young, but watch those AD lines for any sign of a reversal. The VIX stalled right at its 20 dma (25.50).
Oil is no help, hitting a high of 103.05. Commodities are a hedge these days, no matter what the price.

MOrning update:

NQ dropped the overnight lows and AD lines are now -2050 on NYSE and -1380 on the Nasdaq with a 9 to 1 down volume day. This is no time to play hero, unless you are playing quick scalps off the vol. Protecting capital is the number one rule.
The DOW could be headed for that 12300 level by Monday if the bulls don't step up to the plate before the close.

Open:

AD lines are quickly moving up to the dreaded -2000 level. 9 to 2 down volume on the Nasdaq, right off the bat. The DOW is testing 12400. The VIX looks headed straight for 26+. The only consolation for bulls is that it is happening early in the day. If it does get worse than this, it will get really nasty. But watch NQ 1770.
ES is right at trendline support (1345/1348)

Pre-open:

The bear is back. ES is testing weekly pivot (1350.75). NQ lost it already and went all the way down to the Feb 26 low. If that does not hold (1765.75), a trip to 1742 is in the cards. DELL did not deliver, although most would agree it is company specific, given the good HPQ numbers. But none of this matters when fear is knocking at the door. ISE has crept up to 135. It should plummet at the open as shorts pile on once again.

DOW support will be 12438/12468. Critical level to hold will be the trendline off January, currently at 12275/12300. Keep in mind that the broader pattern for the DOW has an ascending triangle, which is normally bullish. In other words, a test of the trendline could set up another leg higher next week. But the 50 dma rejection at 12656 was unequivocal. YM (DOW futures) is showing support at the 12440 level, but I expect some pressure there at the open.

Pay close attention to AAPL and the 122/123 level.

VIX resistance will be 26/26.50.

Feb. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Consumer spending in the U.S. rose more than forecast in January, reflecting a jump in prices that is eroding Americans' buying power.

The 0.4 percent rise in spending followed a 0.3 percent gain in December, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation climbed 0.3 percent, the most in four months.

Thursday, February 28, 2008

After-hours:

Sellers come back at the close. DELL taking an initial hit after hours, it will need to hold 19.85. NOVL is a better story. But how NQ behaves (NDX e-mini) is what matters. For now, it looks like bears will get the upper hand tomorrow.

PM Update:

Bulls hold the fort thanks to the tech sector (mostly AAPL, up 6%). NQ bounced off its 10 dma (1789) now above 1800. AD lines are still quite negative, so the jury is out, but ES above 1369 is a positive.
DELL after the close, last Q was a disaster, expectations are pretty low for this one.

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The economy's current period of sluggish growth and rising prices won't last and devolve into the same kind of intractable problem for policymakers as happened after the end of the Vietnam War, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Thursday.

Next EUR/USD short targets would be 1.5206 and 1.5275 (EC March futures).

Morning update:

The internals were just too negative and down we go. Next level of support for ES is 1362. SMH is down 2%, bears definitely have the ball. Oil is above 101 on the dollar drop, EUR/USD short is stopped out for now (lowered at open), but a re-entry higher might be in the cards. For now, don't mess with the flow. VIX resistance is at 24.07. Two consolations for bulls: we will get a rate cut and ISE equity is down at 104. But SPX must hold 1357/1360 at all cost.
NYSE new year high 53, new year low 42.
DELL earnings after the close.

Open:

Feb. 28 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy in the fourth quarter grew at an annual rate of 0.6 percent, less than forecast and reflecting reduced estimates for spending and construction.
The gain in gross domestic product from October through December matched the government's advance estimate issued last month and followed a 4.9 percent third-quarter pace, according to revised figures issued today by the Commerce Department in Washington. The median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of economists projected a 0.8 percent increase.

Interestingly enough, EUR/USD is not getting much of a boost, so the short is still on for now (entry 1.5130, currently at 1.5127). TNX (ten year yield) is right at 20 dma support (37.39).

As for equities, same old theme, watch ES 1369/1371. AAPL has a 4% bid, which is preventing NQ from completely falling apart right out of the gate. Support there is confluence 5 and 10 dma (1789/1792). Internals are quite negative, so bears have the ball.

Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Closing hour:

NYSE new year highs 97, versus 24 new year lows at the peak of today's rally. That's the highest since December. AD lines have turned negative so this rally is getting tired. But SMH is still up 1.11%. Financials are also green, but Transports and retail are down, even though oil has dropped below 100.

ES 1382 is a problem, bulls will want a close above 1374.

EUR/USD March contract is an entry short at 1.513. The drop will be fierce if GDP tomorrow is better than expected. If it is worse, the max short term upside is marginal, maybe 1.5210. I'm putting my stops at 1.5230, a full point.

PM update:

Another important day for bulls as SMH bursts out of multi-month resistance (see previous post). Again, the fact that this rally off Feb lows was spearheaded by semis (a theme I have been discussing here for a few weeks) is a good sign. Reversal Thursday is coming, but as long as ES keeps accumulating above 1370, there is hope. I also pointed out last night that the low ISE should give us more upside, here it is. We will keep tracking sentiment. When the short covering slows down, we will truly find out what bulls have in the tank. Ad lines are weakening on the third day of this push, so pull up your stops.

NEW YORK (AP) -- Semiconductor shares rose Monday as Banc of America and Oppenheimer & Co. analysts said there may be value in the low price of some chip stocks.

Morning update:

AAPL, GOOG and GS, the losers of the past few sessions, are some of the few stocks in the green, at least for now. SMH (semi-conductor ETF) is down fractionally, but bumping up against major resistance, the downtrend line from October. A break above would squeeze many shorts, though.

Oil inventories coming up at 10:30.

Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the U.S. central bank ``will act in a timely manner'' to insure against ``downside risks'' to the economy.

Bernanke's remarks may reinforce investors' expectations that the central bank will lower interest rates further to help a faltering economy.

How far could the EUR/USD bounce go? Using the futures contract (continuous), initial projection resistance is at 1.505, followed by 1.5137 and 1.5206. Support is the breakout at 1.4915/1.4930.

I find it very unlikely that Europe will not face the same problems we do. In fact, Spain has a huge glut of unsold property from the construction boom of the past few years. But ECB is not being as pro-active as the Feds. Furthermore, their stock markets have risen much higher and faster than the US. In other words, foreign money will make its way into the US markets and help support it should their markets feel more heat. I believe this is happening right now and could be a reason we are not tanking further. If you owned Euros, you would be looking at the fire sale in the US with interest. With the currency appreciation, is a win/win longer term. The EUR/USD surge should wind down this quarter.

Open:

Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Orders for U.S. durable goods fell more than forecast in January as a slowing economy prompted companies to reduce spending.
The 5.3 percent decrease in bookings for goods meant to last several years followed a revised 4.4 percent gain in December that was smaller than previously reported, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Excluding transportation, demand dropped 1.6 percent, the third decline in four months.

Watch ES 1369.25 support.

Tuesday, February 26, 2008

NQ (NDX futures) closes right at its 20 day moving average, somewhat of a victory for bulls who almost saw the whole rally fall apart 45 mns before the close. ES (SPX futures) closes near the highs, at 1382, which is 38.2%/61.8% Oct/Jan (continuous contract). Banks are still weak, but other than that, lots of green on decent volume. Still lots of non-believers per ISE equity. This could be supportive of further gains. The bond bid does raise a cautionary flag, though.

Closing hour:

As I watch the downgrades come out on GOOG, I am reminded as to how incompent analysts are. Needham takes the cake with multiple upgrades to buy and strong buy on January 3rd, including Apple (AAPL) when it was at 190. In other words, forget what they say and do your own research. In the case of GOOG, we could see 426 (October 2006 gap close) before all is said and done. I would buy it there ahead of Q1 earnings, regardless if what an analysts says then.

The rally is fizzling, no suprise as overbought in a bear market always finds sellers. I had ES resistance at 1386.50, the high was 1388.50 (NEVER use two point stops on ES if you enter at a number everyone lines up: it is the preferred stop of about 95% of traders. You will get nailed). 1375 is support, followed by 1371.50 and 1369.25.

Note to readers:

All blog postings up to now have been stamped Pacific time, since I am based in California. As of today, all times will be Eastern time (New York). Posting times are available for viewing when you click on "comment".

Noon update:

Semis lead the charge with SMH up 2.4%. NQ is right at 20 dma resistance, now 1796.50. A close above would be very bullish, although that bond bid has not dropped. Watch AAPL 5 dma at 120.70. Oil is above 100 as inflation sparks a run to commodities.

Thank you IBM:

Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) -- International Business Machines Corp., the world's biggest computer-services company, plans to buy back an additional $15 billion of stock and boosted its annual forecast.

DOW 50 dma is at 12688.

Morning update:

That VIX bullish divergence was not a mirage. ES is back above 1371 and NQ 1781. The "priced in" theory is gaining converts. Resistance for ES above 1375 is at 1386.50. Overnight lows of 1365 must hold in the closing hour, what really counts. One problem: banks are not participating. That will have to change for any rally to be safe.

Morning update:

Heavy drop in consumer confidence. ES could test 1357. Again, we will find out how much of this is priced in. Bonds have a bid, but the VIX is not confirming ES new lows, "normally" a bullish divergence.

Open (2);

GOOG is hitting that gap at 456, mentioned in a comment last night. The gap close would be at 426. AAPL is very critical at 117. I have not been a fan this year of the 2007 winners and it looks like others feel the same way. This is a brutal hit on many portfolios. INTC, MSFT and BRCM are up, so NQ manages to hold support for now. The VIX has dropped to 23.
Consumer confidence at 10.

Open:

Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Prices paid to U.S. producers rose more than twice as much as forecast in January, pushed up by higher fuel, food and drug costs, signaling inflation may keep accelerating even as growth slows.

We will wee if yesterday's break is sustainable. SMH opens green, as does retail and housing. The news is not good, so expect a bear attack soon. ES confluence 10 and 20 dma at 1356/1357 if a critical is we lose 1365. Small caps are up, so there is hope for bulls, although NQ still has 20 dma resistance at 1796.25.

Monday, February 25, 2008

ES (SPX e-mini futures) closes above 50% January (1369.25).

Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- MBIA Inc., battling to stave off the crippling loss of its AAA credit rating, soared in New York Stock Exchange trading after Standard & Poor's said no downgrade of the bond insurer is imminent.

Closing hour:

Another bullish reversal on volume. There is a major area of resistance for ES at 1370. Lookout above if that breaks to the upside.

PM update:

A range bound day with support holding, namely ES 1351/1354. NQ is a bit more of a problem due to the weight of AAPL and GOOG on NDX. Watch 1781 resistance for that e-mini.
ISE (equity) is at 104, the wall of worry is alive and well. If you are short, you need to realize that many tech stocks with solid balance sheets have corrected more than 30% (AAPL, INTC, GOOG etc...).

Noon update:

ES is battling the important 1354 level, below that we have the weekly pivot at 1351. GS is in the red and that is alwas a drag. Note the QQQQ rejection at 44, 10/20 dma. Watch 43.54.

Morning update:

Most sectors in the green except for financials. It's a good sign that semis and retail are in the lead, but the banks need to participate to make it a secure rally. Internals overall are pretty healthy and we could see buying develop throughout the day if ES can hold 1354. AAPL and GOOG are still a question mark.

Sunday, February 24, 2008

Ad nauseum discussions on the trading boards, and even in some mainstream financial publications, on the triangle formation for SPX and NDX. The thinking was the break will follow the trend. But the market is not in the mood to satisfy the crowd. As you can see on the NQ (NDX e-mini futures)chart, the triangle (dotted line) and its break turned out to be a bear trap and the prevailing trend could very well be the uptrend channel started on January 23rd. That would set up a test of the upper band, coincidentally not far from the 50 day moving average, currently at 1924. A break of 1720 would wipe out any bullish scenario, but I find that unlikely with ISE sub 100 readings.

The QQQQ chart is even more precise, for a change. Solid reversal right at channel support.

Friday, February 22, 2008

Any doubts that sentiment had gone too negative (a big theme here) was dispelled in the closing hour. I had some indicators early on that told me a closing bounce was possible, but I had pretty much given up on the idea at the 2 PM turn. Wow. What a comeback. QQQQ closes back above the key 43.54 level and ES above both 10 and 20 dma. AAPL, INTC and MSFT held things back a little for NQ, not closing above its 10 dma. But bulls will take it.

PM update:

NQ looks headed for the trendline, around 1730. If ES loses 1328, next support is 1320.50. The close could either get very ugly, or they could manage to chop it back up above support (NDX 1750). It's Friday, so not too many heroes out there.

Noon update:

Any earlier divergences are failing and bears are taking control. AAPL and INTC are the main culprits. The latter better hold 117. ES is still clinging to 1331 and on the plus side, AD lines have dropped to -990 from -1586. ISE equity at 96 is also telling us too many shorts out there.
Watch NDX 1749.50 as well (61.8%, 2006/2007).

Turkey moving into Iraq pulls oil back up to 99.

Morning update (2):

We are still down, but again some of my indicators are pointing to a closing bounce. Nothing is set in stone, but price is starting to confirm with NQ weekly S1 finding support again and ES back above 1335. All bets are off if ES loses 1331.

Morning update:

Last week's NQ low is being tested (1763.75) as is the triangle. Do or die for bulls, what else is new. AD lines have turned quite negative. SOX is stll green, though barely. ES is right at 1336, another critical level. VIX resistance is 25.34 if you are looking for an upside reversal, which some of my indicators say is still possible, though unlikely for now with that bond bid. Bears are trying very hard to trigger those sell stops below ES 1335.
25.72 is next VIX resistance.

Open:

NQ has a potential three day inverted head and shoulder if yesterday's low is not violated (1764.75). Max target 1837.75, using 1794 as the neckline. Watch the 43.54 level on QQQQ. The line in the sand is best used with NDX at 1749.
Once again, semis are up. The one major problem is the triangle on the daily with 1769.50 support that better not break. Tricky day and a Friday to boot.

Thursday, February 21, 2008

Equity only ISEE at 119, no dip buyers and still plenty of pessimism. The news out there is pretty bad and the only hope bulls have is that most of it is priced in.

Feb. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Two members of the panel charged with dating U.S. economic cycles said while increasing evidence of a downturn has drawn their attention, it's too early to declare whether a recession has begun.

Closing hour:

As we move into the final hour, traders need to heed the bigger picture. QQQQ monthly chart has 23.6% retrace off lows of the entire 2000/2002 bear market at 43.54. The current bull market trendline is at 42.20. But it is very interesting to see how critical 43.54 is. Resistance in 2005 and early 2006, bulls finally conquered it in 2007. We are now in the retest process. I cannot count techs out as long as we manage these rallies above 43.54. Should February close above, all bearish bets are off. Vice-versa of course.

NQ traders: the equivalent on the continuous contract is 1762. As long as that holds, the world is not ending.

PM update:

The markets are at a very critical stage. All this coiling the past few days will have to resolve either way. Expect it to be a big move. Right now it looks like bears own it, but watch ES 1349/1353. Oil has dropped again, in what could be a double top failure. That is good news if we have seen the last of 100 in the near term. Oil bulls need 97.85 to hold or we will see 95 very quickly. Semis are still green.

Noon update:

Chips are holding techs up. There is a bond bid, so pressure on equities remains, but there is definitely something brewing in the SOX. However, we will need to see a close above 363 to get confirmation.

Oil is a problem once again. I have a possible upside move to 106 if we get a close above 100. For now, we are double topping.

Open:

Leading indicators look light and we should see some gap closes (NQ 1789.25, ES 1359).

Pre-open:

Some good news from RIMM and CSCO, and we have a bid in NQ futures. Weekly pivot is now support (1794). Watch the 20 dma at 1802.
Jobless claims were pretty much in line (+1000), leading indicators at 10.

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

For those who believe that the VIX has gone wild to the upside, think again. The rough range from 1997 to 2000 was between 17 and 40, with a few spikes above. The great bull run of 1999 had a VIX range between 18 and 33. During the bear market of 2000/2002, the range pretty much stayed the same except for a very heavy period in 2002 above 40. The freakishly low (sub 15) era of the latest bull market will probably not be seen again until the next decade. This is good news for traders: bigger swings equals bigger potential profits (and losses if you are not disciplined). The style of trading must adapt. If you are getting stopped out and going nowhere, don't give up too quickly if your indicators tell you that you are in the right direction. Multiple re-entries work well in this environment because when you get going, you usually get enough of a move to easily make up for a couple of failed attempts. Above all, do not start widening your stops. Work on honing your entries, not your loss to profit ratio.

There seems to be a flattening out at the 25 level the past few days, which could set up a big move either way. A drop to 17 or jump to 40 would fit in the new paradigm.

Closing hour:

$100 oil once again, but equities are holding on to gains and rallying into the close. Key sectors are all in the green. It is it a sign of extreme resiliency to see support levels hold after the bad news on inflation and triple digit oil. Note the dollar rally as well.

NQ weekly pivot at 1794 will be resistance.

PM update (3):

Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President William Poole said excessive cuts in interest rates aimed at averting a recession run the risk of accelerating inflation to an ``unacceptable'' level...``Further cuts in the target federal funds rate may or may not be appropriate,'' Poole said, adding the decision would be shaped by economic data in the weeks before the next meeting on March 18.
``The U.S. economy today is limping along,'' Poole said. ``Some believe recession is at hand; others, and I include myself in this group, believe the economy will skirt recession.''

Bull markets usually start when a rate cut cycle ends. In other words, if we have seen the last of the cuts, or close, equities should start a strong uptrend. It's not set in stone, but you will notice in today's trading how bond selling corresponded to the equity turnaround (a "normal" relationship).

Investors intelligence came out yesterday. The bull/bear ratio kissed last week, a bottoming sign under normal circumstances: link. In the end, though, price is all that matters. At some point, traders will also take notice of the new leadership coming from semiconductors, up 2% intraday. All bets are off if this group falls apart again.

Watch out for the oil boogeyman, now trying to get back above 100.

PM Update (2):

COMP held the trendline off January lows (chart).

10 dma resistance as well, though.

PM udpate:

ES and NQ rally to close the gaps. That semi bid was a warning for bears as was the VIX failure at 26.80. Now we see if NQ can hold 1781, since 10 dma resistance is at 1784.50. AD lines have turned positive. Unfortunately, oil is back above 99 (April contract).

Appalling numbers on our budget from the Cato institute: link.

Open:

ES pushes up to 1343.25, 50% and right under 10 dma. We are pulling back from that level without having closed any gaps. Noting however a bid in semi-conductors. Internals are bearish, but watch that VIX 26.80 level mentioned last night. If it holds as resistance, equities could hold lows.
NQ gap close is at 1781.50, ES at 1355.50.

Pre-open:

The oil bid dies, as the dollar rallies on the inflation news (no more rate cuts). Unfortunately, it is an equity killer as well. NQ (NDX e-mini futures) needs to hold 1756 or we will re-visit the bull market trendline, now at 1730.
ES (SPX e-mini futures) reaches critical mass below 1320.25 and collapse status below 1309. We are not there yet, but your first warning sign would be the loss of 1332.75. Resistance will be 1350/1354.

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Another VIX run to 29 coming? Watch 26.80 tomorrow.

NQ came awfully close to weekly S1 (1756.50) and bounce hard. Very often, weekly S1 or weekly R1 appear early in the week and mark lows or highs. If NQ loses 1756.25, it could get ugly. But for now, it held.

Hundred dollar oil gave us a closing sell-off but HPQ is a winner after-hours. The problem with aggressively lowering interest rates is that by postponing a recession, some oil traders feel that demand will come back. But the breakout is more like a major short squeeze kicked in by the Chavez comments last week. The Texas refinery fire is a joke in terms of output disruption, but any excuse to get oil back up there is good enough. Note that the April contract, which takes over tomorrow, has not hit $100. The current March contract cease trading on the 20th.

SMH is at the pivotal 28.29 level, although after-hours it has jumped up to 28.47. It's a mess out there.

PM Update (2):

The markets are dying to take off, but oil above 99 is a major stumbling block, at least for non-energy. We are into contract rotation (out of March, into April) but this is very bad news short term.

NQ held the weekly pivot, but it could come under attack at the close (1793/1794).

Some positive news on the housing front:

Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Confidence among U.S. homebuilders rose for a second straight month, the first back-to-back increase in almost a year, as signs emerged that lower house prices attracted more buyers.

PM update:

Hot new Intel product: link.

Stock is rallying back above 20.45 resistance. A close above 20.66 seals the deal. A close below 20.44 ends it.

A primer on subprime: link.

Morning update:

98 oil is tempering the enthusiasm, although NQ is still currently holding its 5 dma (1798.50). Bonds are down, which is supportive for now. Watch those gaps if NQ loses 1798.

Chips and housing are up. Retail and banking down.

Pre-open:

Thanks to the three day weekend, the 20 day moving average for NQ has dropped to 1804.50. Gap close will be at 1786.50, which is also confluence with the 10 dma. That will need to hold.

Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose to a six-week high above $98 a barrel on speculation OPEC will curb production and refinery disruptions may limit fuel supplies.

Monday, February 18, 2008

Monday's abbreviated equity session (Index futures only) saw a substantial rally in NQ, ES and ER. NQ reclaimed the 20 dma, closing at 1819.75. It's all low volume Europe trading, and we will have to see what Asia does tonight. The key for the health of the markets in general is to get NQ to break out above 1831.50.
Nevertheless, bulls will take today's rally, as markets were on the edge of the cliff at Friday's close.

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Shares of Toshiba Corp. were sharply higher at midday in Tokyo Monday as investors cheered a rumored decision by the technology giant to withdrawal from a costly format battle over the future of DVD technology with rival Sony Corp.
The move apparently signals Sony's Blu-ray technology will emerge as the de-facto standard for high-definition DVD players.

This is going to be a suprise boost to hardware revenue this year as many consumers buy Blu-Ray players.

Sunday, February 17, 2008

ZURICH (Thomson Financial) - UBS AG chief executive officer Marcel Rohner said 2008 will be a difficult year for the Swiss banking group but that it may not be as bad as 2007.
He said the private banking business still brought in over 30 bln sfr of new money in the past quarter.
'In January too, the net new money inflow is positive. We are taking on more customer advisers,' he said.
However, a separate report in another Swiss Sunday newspaper SonntagZeitung suggests the bank is falling behind in its asset management business.

Friday, February 15, 2008

ES right there as well (chart). Note the 23.6% hold (1336).

SMH (semi-conductor holders) still alive but will need to jump right out of the gate on Tuesday. It was a critical close, one penny above the 20 day moving average.

Futures will trade Sunday night and close Monday at 10:30. It's usually a meaningless session, but it can have a broad range.

PM Update:

Financials keep supporting the markets from a major fall. SMH, unfortunately for bulls , is struggling wth the 28.50 level. It's not a good day to trade unless you hit the open reversal and got out.

Morning update (2):

INTC needs to hold the channel at 20.24.

Morning update:

ES did a test of overnight lows, but the VIX was not confirming the move and we bounce. Note that financials are up, at least for now. ES 1348.50 is the game.
SMH at 20 dma, 28.60.

Gap closes are ES 1351 and NQ 1794.25.

Open:

It will be vital for ES to get a close above 1348 today. Expect a test of pre-open lows at some point. 1320 is the line in the sand on any drop.
Remember that this is opex Friday.

Feb. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Best Buy Co., the largest U.S. consumer electronics chain, cut its full-year earnings forecast as the cooling economy discouraged customers from visiting stores in January.

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Video game sales managed a modest gain in January, beating the expectations of analysts who predicted a decline for the month.
Sales of video game software for North America rose 11% to $610.6 million for the month of January, according to figures from the NPD Group released late Thursday.
The results surprised analysts, who were predicting a drop in sales compared to the same period last year - which had benefited from having an extra week in the period.

Thursday, February 14, 2008

A fun grap