AheadoftheNews.com

Noon update:

Big reversal in oil as it drops 4 dollars from the highs. That of course is killing any gold rally.
ES is back above 1319.75, after another double dip scare, but on low volume. Bond still have a bid and chop is present. Not a very good day to trade with funds moving things around as we end the month and the quarter. But it looks like bulls avoided a breakdown. The NDX gap at 1752 from last Monday is still staring at us, it would have been better to get that one out of the way.

Morning update:

EUR/USD on a bid, which is pushing oil up once again. Watch CL 106.36, 3/26 high. Gold is still struggling with its 50 dma, now at 940. JPY is not as bullish as EUR, maybe due to some carry trade resumptions, but it is still green versus the dollar. However, any ES drop below 1314 could get it going.
Don't forget this is also end of quarter dressing.

Open:

Watch VIX 26.85 resistance and ES 1319.75 (on both ends). We had a quick open test of SPX 1310 (low was 1312.81) and bounced from there.
Bonds have a bid.

SPX closed below its 20 dma, but note that we are resting right above the pivotal January low close/open of 1310.50 (dotted line). The question still remains whether we are building a right inverted shoulder, a bull flag, or a set up for a steeper decline. In the meantime, watch 1310 tomorrow. A close above 1338 sets the stage for a breakout.
I will post the NDX chart again next week with an update. I am particularly interested in seeing what we do with last Monday's gap at 1750. I think we are seeing more accurate predictions out of NDX/QQQQ/NQ, so tomorrow's action will be key. Future's traders watch NQ 1751.50/1766.25 and anything in the middle. 1751 is also the 20 dma. Lots of forces at play there. QQQQ equivalents are 43.09 /43.28.

March 29 (Bloomberg) -- Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is likely to call for the creation of new regulatory agencies with broad powers over lending, the securities industry and business conduct, according to the draft of a study he commissioned.
The report, which recommends more power for the Federal Reserve, also proposes combining the Office of Comptroller of the Currency -- which dates back to the Civil War -- and the Office of Thrift Supervision into a single banking overseer. In addition, the draft, which was circulated to government agencies this week and obtained by Bloomberg News, calls for the merging of the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

It's going to be very interesting to see how markets react to this proposal. The word regulation always spooks Wall Street, but this plan was put together by Paulson, the ultimate insider. They were smart to announce this out on a Saturday. It is such a sweeping change, analysts will need to sort this out over the weekend.Watch the dollar's reaction Sunday night.

PM update:

Correction on the last post, NQ 50 dma is at 1784, using the continuous contract which is more accurate past 10 days. Overall weakness due to the bond bid is still prevalent. If we lose the 50 dma for NDX/QQQQ/NQ, odds are pretty strong we will get down to that gap discussed last night.
INTC has pulled all the way down to its 20 dma.

Morning update:

Choppy session but NQ is still holding on to its 50 dma ( 1791). The bond bid is a hindrance for bulls as is the weakness in financials. Hourly resistance for NQ is at 1803.50. Sentiment, per ISE equity, is negative. Again, no euphoria and plenty if pessimism. CBOE equity at 1, another contrarian signal that this bull could have more legs once we are done pulling back.

Open:

Bonds are bidding and financials are down, however equities are putting in a small rally. Watch VIX pivot at 25.58, it will give you a heads up, since it is right under 50% for the week (25.81). NQ 5 dma at 1809 is resistance. For ES, that will be 1340.

There is an interesting possibility playing out in the markets. It starts with the historical foundation of multiple CBOE equity put to call closing readings above 1, with a multi-year high of 1.38 on March 17th, a day that has all the markings of a capitulation low. But what is getting my attention (and that of many other traders) is the potential inverted head and shoulder forming in all the major indices. Lets focus on NDX, my favorite prognosticator. As you can see on the chart, we don't have a right shoulder yet. But many elements are falling into place, especially a supportive line drawn by the bull market trendline off 2002 and 2006 lows. If we drop for another test of that trendline and do not break it (as we did a few times this month, but recaptured), it could form a perfectly decent right shoulder especially if you factor in the 3/24 gap. Basically, 1752 needs to hold on any pullback. If that event resolves in a positive manner, the ultimate test will be to breakout of the neckline. So lots of ifs, but that is what we look for. Of course, there is a catastrophic potential end to all this, a breakdown of 1750 support and new lows. But given the sentiment readings of the past few weeks, I tend to believe there is more upside. For now, we can only dream. But it is fascinating to see that 200 dma up there, right next to a 61.8% projection of our imaginary inverted H&S. Please be aware of the dangers inherent in these types of extrapolations. So again, I emphasize that 1750/1752 must hold on any further drop. A negated set up is always dangerous, since many traders place their bets early. But don't fight the bulls if the pattern confirms.
Futures traders please note that the same gap for NQ (NDX futures) is 1751.50/1765.50. The set up can occur pre-open.

Close:

Right after the cash close they drive NQ back up to 1792, avoiding a close below 1786.

Closing hour:

It's getting shaky as they drive NQ down to test its 50 dma at 1786. It's also 23.6% 2008. That better hold or the uptrend is in jeopardy. Bonds are still negative, so I think this is just weak hands and window dressing. But respect price.

PM Update (2):

As we approach the closing hour, the weight of AAPL and GOOG is just too much to sustain a rally, but we are not breaking down. At least for now. It will be important for NQ to hold the 5 dma at 1800.75. Bonds are still negative as the yield on the ten year climbs to 3.5%. Don't forget all that window dressing, not a very good time to trade. Scalp it.

PM Update:

NQ holds weekly R1 and just like that, everyone goes green. Bonds lost their bid after a brief bounce and it looks like the rotation into equities continues. If bulls can close NDX above its 50 dma, the potential run up to the 200 dma will start getting more credence.
BRCM and NVDA are up, bucking the general downtrend in usual techs (AAPL, GOOG, INTC, RIMM). In the case of BRCM, it went down and closed the gap at 18.86 and is right back on a bid. Minimum target looks to be 20.10 or so if 19 holds at the close.
The bounce in gold looks like a bear flag unless they can get it above 960/970. For now, it's short the rallies in metals at resistance.

Morning update:

NQ loses 1806.50 and we head down to weekly R1 at 1797. ES must hold 1321/1322 on any sustained drop. Bonds have a bid. For now, it's still backing and filling. Watch the action at NQ 1797.

ISE equity dropped to 120. It's relatively bullish that on every day of bad news, shorts pile on. No complacency out there yet.

Open:

Bonds drop and equities manage to hold support, specifically the 5 day moving average for NQ/NDX/QQQQ. There is some selling pressure from GOOG and some semis, but financial, retail and housings are up. Watch ES 50 dma at 1343.75.
On a more macro bullish technical note, NQ (NDX futures) for the first time this year has the 10 dma above the 20 and the 5 has made a cross of the 50.

Big futures drop right after the close. NQ hits 5 dma support, but ES falls below. Blame it on ORCL, but the truth is we were due for a pullback, especially after the SPX bottom to top jump of 8% in just a few trading days. Cash is still above 50 dma, but that could change tomorrow. The VIX (chart) is holding 26 support.

The next big battle in techs could very well be between Google and Microsoft in the mobile arena: link.

Morning update:

NQ drops to yesterday's lows, also confluence S1 (1806/1807), and so far we hold. Hourly chart support is now at 1811.75. Resistance will be 1820. There is still risk to 1797 if we breakdown, but it is interesting to see how QQQQ is holding that 44.36 mark, 23.6% Oct/Jan. If trading QQQQ, I would assess max risk to 43.85 if we lose yesterday's lows.

Open:

ES and NQ hold their 50 dma's. There is red everywhere, except bonds so bulls have something to prove today. Some stocks are doing well, BRCM (mentioned Monday) broke out of a multi-month wedge. Equity ISE opens below 90, which means shorts jumped right in completely reversing yesterday's optimism.
Oil inventories at 10:30.

Overnight session:

ES (continuous contract) is tackling its 50 dma at 1343.25. For NQ, that level is much lower, at 1789.75. The rally is going to have to prove its mettle especially as we get closer to end of month/quarter shenanigans.

PM update:

Hourly charts are still giving ES a small green light, but 1346 will need to hold at the close. For now, it seems that the mood has changed as bad news is no longer an excuse to bail. RIMM and QCOM hold techs up, but financials are still down with the exception of GS, still on a bid. The closing hour will tell us more. Watch VIX 25.65, 61.8% 2008. It used to be "mother Merril", now it's Goldman Sachs that is giving cues.

Morning update:

Consumer confidence is in the dumpster and stocks retreat. COMP finds exact support at its 50 dma (2312, seep previous post)but the day is young. ISE is still up there, so all that sudden optimism might get a bit of a cold shower. We will see what the close has in store. It will be important for NQ (NDX futures) to hold on to 1797. The hourly trend is still up, it gets negated below 1794 for NQ. I am paying particular attention to that index since techs were yesterday's leaders. For now, it's just a typical Tuesday reversal after a two day run.

Open:

Financials are down, ES double topped pre-open at weekly R1. If we pull back, NQ has confluence weekly R1 and daily pivot just under 1800. Watch that 44.36 level for QQQQ as well and COMP 2312, 50 dma.
XLF (spyder financials) is due for a breather, with 26.02 as important support followed by 25.75 and 25.40.

Consumer confidence at 10.

Pre-open:

March 25 (Bloomberg) -- The cost of borrowing in euros on money markets rose to the highest level this year, a sign that attempts by policy makers to revive lending are failing to stop banks hoarding cash.

The euro interbank offered rate, or Euribor, for three- month cash increased 3 basis points to 4.70 percent, the highest level since Dec. 27 and its 14th straight gain, the European Banking Federation said today. The one-week rate rose 4 basis points to 4.32 percent, also the highest since Dec. 27.

Trichet will have to lower rates in Europe at some point. In the meantime, DXY, spot dollar, drops to confluence 5 and 10 dma pre-open (72.34)as the Euro gets a bid. Resistance for EUR/USD June futures is 1.5535, 50% projection February.

Gold faces 50 dma resistance at 936.40.

Close:

A solid ending to a great day, with barely any let up at the close. That ISE at 194 is a little precipitous and since we have end of month window dressing coming soon, I would strategize accordingly. Watch the yield on the ten year, it will have resistance at 3.56%.

NQ (NDX e-mini futures) has support at 1803, 1797 and 1788. The gap is right at the 20 dma, 1751/1754.

PM Update:

The rally keeps going and it is a big one. ES found resistance at its weekly R1, 1361.25 (see previous post). AD lines have not wavered much as we enter the 2 PM turn (+2350). QQQQ went past 44.36 and is well above its 50 dma, which bulls will want to hold on any pullback (44). ISE is still up there, at 190 and that frankly is a little too much too soon, so be selective in your stock picking. I like techs, especially unfairly beaten down ones such as BRCM.

Morning update (2):

Shorts are getting crucified as NDX/QQQQ easily glide past their respective 50 day moving averages for the first time this year. Watch QQQQ 44.36, 23.6% retrace off October/March and ES 1361.25, weekly R1. It was written in those massively bearish sentiment readings, all that was needed was some good news. Today qualifies in a very big way. NQ will need to hold 1797, weekly R1 during the lunch chop. The close, as usual, will tell us if funds are putting money to work or using this as an opportunity to lighten up. But with AD lines up this much and not a single sector of importance in the red, I would go with the flow and buy dips. Semis and financials both up 3.5%. Small caps are the index futures percentage leaders (ER).
One word of caution: ISE jumped up to 197.

Morning update:

March 24 (Bloomberg) -- Sales of existing homes in the U.S. unexpectedly rose in February for the first time in seven months, easing concern credit restrictions and falling prices would hurt demand.

Purchases increased 2.9 percent to an annual rate of 5.03 million, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The median home price dropped 8.2 percent from February 2007, the most in four decades of record keeping.

NQ hits 1802, 50 dma. AD lines are +2100, green everywhere except bonds.

Open:

NQ and ES held on to the 20 dma's overnight and NQ breaks out of the channel. Watch NQ weekly R1 resistance at 1797 and 50 dma at 1802.
Existing home sales at 10.

Overnight session (Asia):

Nice bid as bonds drop. Watch 20 dma support for NQ at 1751 and for ES at 1327. We will soon find out if we have a change of short term trend. As noted on Friday, the bearish sentiment is at levels that usually produces strong rallies. Financials will be critical.
EUR/USD is dropping further putting more pressure on oil and gold. June futures for the pair need to hold 1.5257. DXY (spot dollar) has resistance at 73.25. Traders could be finally adjusting to a different set of parameters but stick to watching bonds in these overnight sessions.

March 21 (Bloomberg) -- Former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin called for quick government action to tackle the rising level of home foreclosures and he indicated taxpayer money will have to be used.
``There is a strong need for urgent action,'' Rubin, who is chairman of Citigroup Inc.'s executive committee, said. ``I would be very, very seriously considering the possibility of using public funds in one form or another.''

I have been calling for this since at least November. The holier than thou I-did-not-take-those loans-let-them-eat-cake attitude is absurd. This is when we need a government and the tax dollars we give it. Yes the banks messed up, yes consumers should have known better, but wasn't it Greenspan in 2004 that told everyone to not worry, forego fixed rate loans and take out adjustables? This goes beyond the bail-out argument. It is the survival of our nation that is at stake. We cannot afford a cataclysm that would take us years to emerge from, just when baby boomers are retiring and a smaller work force is supposed to provide benefits and shore up revenues. Those who lived through the great depression never put money back in the stock market. An entire generation dropped out and business could not raise money through public offerings. Do you really think you will be able to make a living as a trader after a massive collapse and the DOW stays stuck in a 500 point range for years (let alone find a job)? It's a matter of adjusting priorities during an emergency, much like going to war. It's not something you want to do, but if need be you do it.

And why, why did we not wipe out the speculators by flooding the markets with oil at any point in the last three months? Just a few judicious releases of the strategic reserves would have done the trick and given the average consumer, choked by gas prices, enough breathing room to hold on. We are traders, we know how it works, much like a move in overnight futures that is completely orchestrated to stop you out. The selective (it's your tax dollars that have been shoring up the reserves) laissez-faire attitude has no place when you are competing with foreign economies such as China and Europe. There is so much Bernanke can do. Congress and this administration need to figure out something more efficient than a $600 check designed to give a one time bump to GDP just in time for the elections. Wake up.

Financial stocks, as measured by XLF, have managed to close the week above 61.8% 2002/2007 (monthly chart), quite a feat (keep in mind it is top to bottom). It's also an exact confluence of 61.8% 2001/2002 (not on this chart, but I posted that relationship a week ago). This is going to be interesting to follow, since no rally can be sustained without that group (and vice-versa: bears can't gain traction if that sector is rallying). Note that the week's low of 22.29 came within 3.75 point of the October 2002 bottom. Since the dollar is now 30% lower, we easily traded below that mark in real terms.

On the daily chart, we are coming up against the February 29th gap of 26.35/26.70. That will be a challenge and I would not be surprised to see a pullback there. One positive is Thursday's close above the immediate downtrend line and 20 day moving average.

Odds are pretty good that the Bear Stearns debacle was a capitulation low. Time will tell, we will see how any retest and (or) pullback behaves.

More Investor Intelligence charts: link. It is staggering how many are bearish and so few bullish. This market has more upside.

PM update:

ES is coming right up against 61.8% Thurdsay, at 1321.75 (see 60 mn chart). All in all, a very good day for bulls as they recapture most of yesterday's losses. NQ is a little shallower, stalling at 50% (1745.75).

Morning update:

Support has switched to Tuesday's gap opens, ES 1302.75 and NQ 1721. AD lines are not particularly strong, but all key sectors are up, including financials, housing, retail and tech. GOOG and QCOM are the only noticeable drag in the latter. Small caps are leading this bounce. The close is important and could set the tone for next week. Markets will be closed for Good Friday.

One very big positive could be the headlines over the weekend that gas prices are coming down. It is important that the average consumer sees some light at the end of this tunnel. Most Americans are not glued to the markets like us, they care about immediate concerns such as gas and food. The dollar rise will help in that respect.

Open:

Once again, all that negativity is preventing a total collpase and we are actually seeing some green at the open. If bulls can hold, we could have a nice rally next week.
ES is trying to pull out of Tuesday's gap, which opened at 1302.75. It is still not closed (1279.25) and might not be for some time if overnight lows hold (1286.50). Those same overnight lows are not coincidentally the June 2001 highs for SPX. Next resistance is May 2001 high of 1316. These numbers were very much in play during the bull market.

Now that we are done pinning SPX 1300, we could have the type of scenario I have been outlining since last weekend: a collapse in oil and gold and a rally in equities (non-energy and mining) and the dollar. Let's see how this plays out, but oil below 100 is welcome news.

If ES loses 1286.50, we will close that gap at 1279.25. Must hold will be the trendlines (see YM overnight chart).

The latest Investor Intelligence reading has a percentage of bears not seen in years. 44.7% bearish to only 30.9% bullish. That is a .69 ratio, even lower than last week's .72.

Picture perfect bounce for the VIX at lower bands and 61.8%. Resistance is back at 30.20. That is a positive if we can stay below, more panic above. This is op-ex week, so nothing can be trusted.

The market was complaining about higher oil last week, now it gets lower oil and they still sell sectors that benefit from lower oil, such as tech. It's the bear market attitude, but also shows what happens when a hedge (oil/gold) does not work anymore and fear sets in. It's a little silly and will take time to work itself out, but a drop in gasoline prices over the next few weeks will do more to stimulate the economy than a one time check from the governement.

Perfect failure of NQ at trendline resistance (see earlier chart), and even a bearish close below the 10 dma. However, the usual rescue squad is still alive and that is low ISE and stubbornly high CBOE equity put to call. It is supportive, no matter what the gyrations may be short term. Obvioulsy, they wanted to pin SPX at 1300 today, since we are closing those options a day early this time around. We will soon find out if this was a bear trap.

Noon update:

Sellers are back, although AD lines are still positive. Watch NQ trendline resistance and 20 dma (chart).

Morning update:

The rally fizzles, but watch those 20 dma's, especially NQ at 1756.
This is typical op-ex action. Oil is still down 2% after the inventory numbers.
Financials are still green, with XLF resting right at 20 dma support, 25.50. The move off lows was huge, expect some filling. Bonds have a bid, ten year yield at 3.4%.

Open:

Stocks hold on to gains. Pay particular attention to NDX/QQQQ/NQ 20 day moving average at the close. So far, QQQQ is breaking out of that wedge outlined yesterday. That is good news if it holds.
Gold is in a freefall, dropping 50 points or 5%. Oil inventories at 10:30.
Remember that this is still option expiration week, and triple witching at that.

DXY (dollar index futures spot price)has fallen 40% since its high in 2001. This is the dollar folks, not Global Crossing or some other high flying stock of the 90's that pretty much went to zero. Using the last real bull run within its longer term downtrend (the rally from late 2004 to 2005), we can get some pretty useful projections. 50% was 74.27, that loss last month started what could be a capitulative drop in March, which coincided with EUR/USD 1.59, which was promptly sold. The ending monthly candle this month will tell us more. For now, as long as DXY 71.04 holds, EUR/USD could be under some pressure. That would be good news for gas prices.

Blast off for QQQQ, but still descending wedge resistance at 43.50. A move above really clears the decks.
Consumers have lower rates, now they need lower gas. Oil inventories tomorrow might help, along with a possible dollar bid.
When unwarranted optimism creeps back into the equity options market, then hit the sell button. For now, still plenty of negativity.

Closing hour:

ES went into the gap, but not even half way through. Green accross the board, except gold down 17 points.
XLF and financials up 6%. A rally led by that group is the best things bulls could have hoped for. It's still option expiration week, but an SPX close above 1316/1320 would be very bullish. NDX 1745 is also a key level. AD lines +2600. I stated very firmly yesterday that being short as a position was suicide. I hope you covered.

PM update (2):

75 basis point cut. Initial reaction is a dip. Watch ES 1305, 10 dma, followed by support outlined earlier including gap closes. I think the news is bullish and with the amount of shorts out there, we should avoid a sell-off. 2.25% is very low and the markets should be happy. In fact, I doubt we ever get much lower rates with inflation risk still on the horizon. Gold drops to 995 and EUR/USD could be under some pressure as this is ultimately dollar supportive. The currency call is tough, but watch bonds for your clues. For now, they are still negative, which is equity supportive. We've had quite a rally this morning, some backing and filling is to be expected. Be careful trading FOMC days.

PM update:

As we approach the FOMC annuncement, it is interesting to note that in the face of a 300 point DOW rally, ISE equity is all the way down at 77 as shorts increase their positions.

Morning update:

Barely any retreat. There is lots of talk out there of the Feds cutting 1%, I think that is a little silly. If they don't cut as much, the markets might take a dip at first, but eventually rally out of this. Remember that if there is any clue that this could be the end of the easing cycle, or close to it, money starts rotating out of bonds and into equities.

Gap closes are: ES 1279.50, NQ 1695.25 and YM 11997. ES currently at 10 day moving average resistance (1305). Support is 1301, 1291, 1289.75 and 1279.25.

Pre-open:

March 18 (Bloomberg) -- Prices paid to U.S. producers rose less than forecast in February, while prices excluding food and energy jumped by the most since November 2006.

March 18 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the world's biggest securities firm by market value, reported a smaller-than-estimated 53 percent drop in first-quarter profit after asset writedowns and lower fees from investment banking.

March 18 (Bloomberg) -- Yahoo! Inc., the Internet search company that snubbed advances from Microsoft Corp., reaffirmed its forecasts for the first quarter and the year in a bid to prove it can stay independent.

These three stories have sent futures skyrocketing higher, but it was in the tea leaves yesterday if you knew how to read them.

YM (Dow e-mini futures) is up 160 points at 12152, ES (SPX) is up 23 points at 1302.50 and NQ up 26.50 at 1721.50. There will be some backing and filling ahead of the Feds, but it looks like yesterday was a classic retest of lows with capitulation.

The calendar is heavy tomorrow, with PPI and Housing starts pre-open and of course, the FOMC circus at 2:15. It's also triple witching week. Buy support, sell resistance is be the game plan until the Feds speak out.

March 17 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil, copper and coffee led a decline in commodities that may be the biggest ever recorded on speculation that a U.S. recession will stall demand for raw materials.
The UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index fell 4.5 percent to 1,458.597 at 3:56 p.m. in New York, the biggest drop since Oct. 3, 1997, when the data starts. Oil retreated from a record, copper plunged the most in eight weeks and coffee dropped 11 percent. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index plunged the most since at least 1956.

The most dangerous sector to be long is the commodity sector, period. Not techs, or even financials.

CBOE equity put to call ratio at 1.38 in the closing hour. This after a 1.16 read on Friday. Being short now as a position is suicide, unless you are a full time trader with quick hands. I am going out on a limb on this, I know, but I have rarely been this excited about the prospects for an equity rally of sizeable proportions. At the very least, if there is a crash, it will be followed by an almost immediate and very powerful reversal. In other words, be careful with margin, use options. It would be a shame to get a margin call just when things turn around in a big way.

Granville, a terrible market forecaster and a perma-bear, is calling for a crash. I am posting neverthless, just to show readers how much negativity is out there:

March 17 (Bloomberg) -- Joseph Granville and Robert Stovall, octogenarians who've seen every financial market downturn since the 1950s, say the current one may be the worst and is far from over.
``We're in a crash,'' Granville, 84, said in a telephone interview from Kansas City, Missouri, where he lives and works. ``This is the worst I've seen, and I've studied every bit of history all my life.''

On another note, cash to June in ES is almost at par, meaning no premium for those three months. Everyone is rotating out of short March into short June. More fuel for a squeeze.

PM update (2):

Equity ISE at 76. Hard to crash this market with so many puts on board, at least today. The last hour is what will matter, but bears could not press on when they had the ball and they should start covering. Still early to call, I know, but the VIX is flashing bullish divergences. Nasdaq low was 2155, could not quite get to 2149.

Morning update:

Bears can't push it down and now we have a bit of a short squeeze. ISE equity opened at 86, the herd is all bearish (what else is new). I would not take that side right now, at least until we see what happens around NQ 1724 (gap close).

It's fashionable to critize the Feds right now, but they are doing exactly what is needed and I think Bernanke will come out ok when all is said and done. Paulson is the one that has to go after banks and not let them keep these higher 30 year mortgage rates while paying nothing in savings. The banks are the real culprits at this point. It is shocking that in many cases, mortgage fixed rates have not dropped since August, when the ten year was at 5.25%. The only deal is in IO only, so they are creating another problem down the road. They are either massively incompetent, completely criminal or a bit of both.

Open:

Futures hang on to overnight lows, but AD Lines are -2200 right off the bat. Watch those gaps, 1724.50 for NQ and 1293 for ES (June contract). The VIX is above the 2003 highs (34.39). Even though it's high, we are seeing a volatility freeze as each side waits for a clue. The short side is already very committed, let's see if they have more muscle left. I'm not so sure, but price is what matters in the end. Awaiting some of those ISE numbers as they come out.
ES 1697 is 60 mn 20 ema resistance.

March 17 (Bloomberg) -- Paul Touradji, founder of the $3.5 billion hedge fund Touradji Capital Management LP, told clients a ``buying orgy'' in commodities had inflated prices and increased risks of a collapse.
Commodities ``have all gone parabolically higher on frenzied money flow,'' New York-based Touradji, 36, wrote March 10. ``Unless that money flow continues ad infinitum, in which case prices would go to infinity, then the fundamentals had better be improving as quickly as prices have been, otherwise there is nothing else to keep the markets at these levels.''

Finally a sensible view. No one dares tell you to get out of commodities, but I have been beating that drum for a week or two. It's a disaster waiting to happen. Get out of gold and oil in particular. I don't care how much higher it goes, the downside risk is huge. Not worth it.